Is China, Turkey, and Pakistan forming an undeclared alliance against India?

Is China, Turkey, and Pakistan forming an undeclared alliance against India?

Yes to a great extent.

China and Pakistan have already formed an strategic alliance which is largely anti-India. Now for last few years, Turkey is also keenly participating in anti-India activities on the behest of Pakistan.

But things are complicated for this alliance due to their different interests in joining this alliance:

Pakistan- The only and main focus of Pakistan’s Foreign policy is the anti-India framework. Hence, if any country joins hands with Pakistan, she has to subscribe to Pakistan’s anti-India stance to some extent. This is true in case of any country not just China and Turkey. In fact, Pakistan is the fulcrum of any anti-India alliance.

However, both Turkey and China, though joining alliance with Pakistan have different or larger interests . But they would like to use Pakistan as a tool for realizing their larger objectives. Yet in the process of such use they would have to subscribe to Pakistan’s anti-India stance to seek Pakistan’s support. For example:

Turkey: India and Turkey do not have any substantial bilateral issue. yet Turkey is blindly supporting Pakistan on Kashmir issue. Why? Because Turkey has larger objectives of regional dominance or revival of influence of Ottoman era in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and her Arab allies including the US are great hurdles in Turkey’s ambition. Turkey wants to use Pakistan to break the Arab unity and increase her influence. But Pakistan’s support in the OIC has the cost of supporting Pakistan on Kashmir issue.

China: China has the following strategic objectives in seeking the support of Pakistan:

1. Balancing India in Asia to advance her strategic influence in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
2. Finding alternative Sea route through Gwadar (CPEC) for her trade and energy supply, which is threatened due to the presence of hostile naval forces in the Malacca Strait and South China Sea.

Thus, China and Pakistan have larger overlapping anti-India interests than Pakistan and Turkey have.

Marriage of Convenience-Imran, Erdogan and Xi Jinping. Image Courtesy: Tek Deep

This Alliance is against the rule based World Order

Thus, so long as these three countries have complementary and overlapping interests, an anti-India alliance among the three cannot be ruled out. It is different thing whether they announce it formally or not. In addition, Turkey and China both share a common ambition to increase their regional influence as soon as possible. Both derive their inspiration from their historical past: Turkey from the Ottoman era influence and China from the Qing Empire. Hence both are inclined to defy the present rule based order to realize their ambitions. Yet their paths are difficult as larger global community still adheres to the prevailing rule based order.

Thus, the emerging tripartite alliance between Pakistan, Turkey and China may be irksome for India in the short run, but it would not succeed in its objective due to differing interests and larger opposition from the global community. The close ties among the three is nothing more than a marriage of convenience.

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