Firstly, at the start of WWII America was not a major military power. Its 174,000 man army ranked 19th in the world.
As General George C Marshall wrote, when he took over in 1939, the U.S. was a third rate power.
Secondly, politically the United States was against joining the war at all. The general public saw it as Europe's war and didn't want to get involved. If it wasn't for the attack on Pearl Harbor (and the events leading up to that are a whole other story) the U.S. may have sat out the entire war.
There was also a certain level of anti-Semitism in the U.S. and even support for the Nazi regime. These ranged from fringe groups to well known individuals like Henry Ford, and Charles Lindbergh, entertainment personalities and Senators and Congressmen.
German American bund (pro-Nazi) rally Madison square garden 1939
Thirdly, the U.S. was heavily invested in Nazi Germany. Before 1941 American investment totaled about half a billion dollars[1] - total U.S. investment abroad in 1939 was $11.4 Billion[2], so Germany represented a large chunk of that.
Many brands that are still well known - IBM, Ford, Coca-Cola et al continued to operate in Germany, even after war was declared, through subsidiaries, shell companies and Swiss bank accounts.
There were also a host of less well known American companies and banks supplying oil, financial services and other materials.
So, yes. Hitler may have been justified in thinking that the US would let him continue what he was doing.
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