So I want you to look at this electoral map right here:
These are the results from the 1936 US election. The incumbent president, the Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt (you may have heard of him) absolutely annihilated his opponent, Republican Alf Landon.
After this election, there was talk that the Republican party might be done. As in, the party might disband.
And yet, not even 20 years later, a Republican was president.
Now, let’s fast forward a bit and take a look at another electoral map:
This is the electoral map from 1984. Republican incumbent Ronald Reagan (another name you may have heard) absolutely vaporized the Democratic nominee, Walter Mondale.
Although there was no talk of disbanding the Democratic party, many saw it as being in dire straits. Clearly, this electoral map showed that Reagan’s brand of conservatism was here to say. Clearly, this electoral map was the death knell for American liberalism.
And yet, not even 10 years later, America had a Democrat in the White House.
The history of American politics is one of constant shifts: sometimes, the electorate moves in a more rightward direction for a while, and sometimes it moves in a more leftward direction. But it never stays there forever.
At the moment, America is extremely divided. This has been exacerbated by the most recent occupant of the White House: while it’s true that Trump didn’t cause the deep divisions in the American electorate, he undeniably made it worse, riding the tide of anti-liberal sentiment to his 2016 win and constantly inflaming these divisions throughout his presidency. However, this divided environment basically means the kind of landslide victories that happened in 1936 and 1984 are pretty much impossible now. And that means just about any given Republican - and any given Democrat - is guaranteed a certain number of electoral votes.
The Republican party isn’t going anywhere. It actually made gains in the House this year, and will probably end up holding the Senate. The 2022 midterms might see even further gains. And if the Republican party is smart, they’ll nominate someone in 2024 who has the policy ideas of a Donald Trump, but just without the obnoxious personality and open contempt for the rule of law that made him so polarizing, and drove centrist voters away from him this year.
This mystery candidate, whoever it might be, would have a very good chance at winning the presidency. And possibly staying in office 2 terms.
With all the political hubbub going on, we can say one thing for sure: we live in interesting times.
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