Isn’t Mr. Modi showing his weakness by not responding to China & Nepal, like he did to Pakistan?

Isn’t Mr. Modi showing his weakness by not responding to China & Nepal, like he did to Pakistan?

Indian Air force in Ladakh, India.

There are many seasons in the year, and during these seasons determination has to be adapted accordingly. A battle fought today, will be won differently than one which fought tomorrow or next year. Pakistan attacking India, is a different scenario than China attacking India by taking vacant land or a trying to change the status quo along the border. China has developed an expertise for seeing when the border is not patrolled by the Indian side and when and where there is an opportunity to take vacant vantage points which may be useful later. Of course India has learnt this behavior over decades and understands how the P.L.A. works. Nepal since 1950 has actually never been a nation which was elated at the prospect of Indian Independence. For Nepal, the idea of India remaining colonized seemed to have boosted not only its opinion of itself, but gave it a special image as an Independent Kingdom compared to a Giant India which was ruled from abroad. Nepal like so many other nations in Asia was greatly influenced by the propaganda of the British Empire, and their reliance on the Nepali Gurkha Troops. The troops were never necessary but a means to an end, as this exerted the British Empire’s influence onto Nepal, and the troops were a counter balance in many ways to the Indian Punjab regiments which also were similarly hailed. In this later case it was because Maharaja Ranjit Singh’s Empire had held out against the British Empire until 1840 and Punjab had been it’s main component. Even to this day, though now very much changed in Indian Punjab to a Pan-Indian identity, but not so much in Nepal this idea of unique martial attributes continues. With this idea, Nepal has often pushed a national agenda which has been counter productive to its relations with India and ultimately to its own economy. China has made use of this factor and in 2020, a sinking Prime Minister Oli was bailed out by China. In return for keeping him in power P.M. Oli has pushed through rhetoric about Nepal having land claims against India. Yet, in dealing with these issues India understands that it actually is dealing with China not Nepal in any full sense.

Prime Minister Oli, and China’s envoy to Nepal, who was a great factor in Nepal’s current land claims against India.

A complex strategy has been required in dealing with China since the Sino-Indian War of 1962. While China obtained what appeared to have been a victory against India in 1962. The reality is that the war effort for India at that time was not fully pursued, instead P.M. Nehru would quickly decide that any true full scale war was not worth being waged for terrain he seems not have understood the true strategic value of. He seemed to try to justify the loss of Aksai Chin as simply a piece of land where nothing of any value was found or could be grown. While this may be true, the strategic value has only grown this time. China not only relies on this territory to connect Occupied Tibet, but also to gain access to Pakistan and further C.P.E.C. through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. The result has been a clear surrounding of India, and a possible launching pad for future attacks against Indian Kashmir.

The response to latest border intrusions in India, have to be looked at the larger sense of history and at the same time they also must be viewed from a perspective of pragmatism. India had several choices it could have made. The first and obvious choice was to push the Chinese Forces back, this would trigger a limited war, or a full scale war depending on how long the action took, and how serious China was about waging war for lines on the map. The second choice was to concede to the China changing the Line of Control and just accepting it. The change was not that large and the strategic loss could be reassessed and compensated for via increased weaponry. The third and least obvious choice was to interpret the line of control in another related area and achieve a re-balancing which had the same net affect as pushing the P.L.A. back.

Indian Army Supply Trucks make their way.

The world’s first political scientist and Prime Minister of the Mauryan Dynasty, Chanakya would write about such situations. China which on paper has more fire power than India seeks to instill fear and thus using psychological warfare create an environment where India will give in. Chanakya stated “Determination destroys fear”, the Indian Armed Forces are determined to not give in. He also stated that those blinded by their own aims, cannot see flaws. Here once more, it could be applied to current situation, the idea was for a quick land grab, and superiority over Indian Military Roads which connect ultimately to the Siachen glacier. The real goal may be the Siachen Glacier and from there Aksai Chin could never be hypothetically attacked. But, the Chinese plan was flawed, the timing of attack required a long drawn out period to come into play, and for it to work, India would have to concede to giving up land in the false hope of peace.

Indian Soldier near the China Border.

India understands Chanakya’s Principle of Straws, for the greatest storms cannot pass through mere straws which are numerous but hold tightly to each other. For India, decided to push back taking vantage points which are higher and more difficult to access. No matter how strong the fire power of the P.L.A. it cannot overcome the laws of nature. For even today, just like in days of Chanakaya the mathematics of the Universe cannot be overcome by mastery of warfare alone. Warfare in the Himalayas is not about fire power but instead about geometry. There simply is no way to win a war in the Indian Himalayas by using force. It comes down to determination, and blocking the advance of invading troops in narrow passes. Here a military of thousands can be reduced to lone survivors from the proper use artillery from advantageous positions. India is not in a weak position and this has only been reinforced in the past week. There is little reason to wage a war here, and restoration of the Status Quo is the best solution for both India and China. There is no weakness in preserving the strength of your nation and avoiding war. Prime Minster Modi is achieving his objectives and gaining the ultimate advantage.

Image source Google

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